#15 Western Kentucky vs #2 Marquette Predictions, Odds & Props for NCAA Tournament

Mar 21, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Marquette Golden Eagles guard Tyler Kolek (11) during practice day at Gainbridge FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY SportsThe #2 Marquette Golden Eagles face the #15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the first roundMarquette stars Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro are both dealing with injuriesBelow, get Marquette vs Western Kentucky predictions and odds

Hoping to break a decade-long Sweet 16 drought, the #2 Marquette Golden Eagles (25-9, 4-2 neutral, 20-13-1 ATS) first have to get past the #15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (22-11, 4-2 neutral, 19-11 ATS) in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

The Hilltoppers and Golden Eagles will square off at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis at 2:00 pm ET on Friday, March 22. Despite some significant injury concerns, Marquette is a 14.5-point betting favorite.

Western Kentucky vs Marquette Odds

The Western Kentucky vs Marquette odds list the #2 Golden Eagles at -1200 with the #15 Hilltoppers at +750. The game total of 158.5 is the third-highest in the college basketball odds for the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

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Largely due to injury concerns, which we’ll come to momentarily, Marquette was only the third-favorite to win the South Region in the Final Four odds on Selection Sunday. But money has clearly come in on the Golden Eagles (+500), who are now in front of #4 Duke and the second-favorite to Houston (+150).

How Healthy Are Kolek and Ighodaro for Marquette?

Shaka Smart’s team has been hit hard by injuries this year and that’s an ongoing issue as the NCAA Tournament arrives. Star point guard Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.6 SPG), who’s missed six games already, is questionable for the opening round with an oblique strain.

Kolek hasn’t played since late February, and Marquette was just 3-3 in his absence this season, but he participated in full-contact practice this week and Smart has already said that Kolek is expected to play.

Ighodaro (14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG) left Marquette’s last game with a leg injury but it doesn’t appear to be serious, and he’s also expected to play on Friday.

Marquette Tied for Second in Strong Big East]

Despite the injury woes throughout the season, the Golden Eagles managed a 14-6 record in Big East play, tied with Creighton for second in the conference. The Big East rated third-strongest in the nation this season at KenPom, fractionally behind the Big Ten.

With Kam Jones averaging a team-high 16.8 PPG, Marquette finished 22nd in offensive efficiency (and 20th on defense). They went 8-6 against teams in KenPom’s top 50, including wins over Illinois (71-64 away), Kansas (73-59 neutral), Texas (86-65 home), and Creighton (72-67 home). They lost all three contests with #1 UConn (81-53 away, 74-67 home, 73-57 neutral) including the semis of the Big East Tournament last time out.

Last season (also as a #2 seed), Marquette cruised past #15 Vermont in the first round (78-61) before bowing out to #7 Michigan State (69-60) in the round of 32.

Odds to Win March Madness 2025: NCAA Men’s Tournament Futures TrackerRead More

Hilltoppers Have Played Just One Top-100 Team All Season (and Lost)

Western Kentucky played just the 240th-strongest schedule in the nation during the regular season and 274th non-conference slate. The best team they played all season was Louisiana Tech (94th at KenPom), splitting their home-and-home with the Bulldogs.

The Hilltoppers went just 8-8 in C-USA play and got very lucky in the conference tournament. WKU didn’t have to face either #1 Sam Houston or #2 La Tech during its run to the C-USA Tournament title. Steve Lutz’s team punched its ticket to the dance with a 78-71 win over UTEP in the C-USA title game.

The Hilltoppers average 80.6 PPG (37th in Division I) but that’s thanks to their frenetic pace (first in tempo). WKU’s offense only rates 190th in opponent-adjusted efficiency. They actually rate significantly higher defensively (104th).

Junior guard Dom McHenry leads the team in scoring at 15.2 PPG while two senior transfers – guard Brandon Newman (10.1 PPG) from Purdue and forward Rodney Howard (10.0 PPG) from Georgia Tech – are also in double-ps for WKU.

Western Kentucky vs Marquette Pick

This is a massive step up in competition for the Hilltoppers, who haven’t played a team of Marquette’s caliber in over two seasons.

Marquette played nine games against teams outside of the KenPom top 100 this year, going 9-0 with a 23.8 average margin of victory.

Healthier than they’ve been in weeks, expect the Golden Eagles to win this one in a rout.

WKU vs MARQ predictions:

Marquette -14.5 (-110)Kam Jones over 19.5 points (-135)

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