Chiefs Same-Game Parlay Best Bets for Super Bowl 58

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) after a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY SportsPatrick Mahomes threw for 286 yards when the Chiefs beat the Niners in Super Bowl 54Travis Kelce has gone over 70 receiving yards in 12 straight playoff gamesSee SBD’s +370 all-Kansas City Chiefs same-game parlay for Super Bowl 58

In just two days’ time, the Kansas City Chiefs will have a chance to add a third Super Bowl title in the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era. Standing in their way, the same team they beat to win their first title back in 2020: the San Francisco 49ers. The odds to win the Super Bowl slightly favor the Niners, but today’s Super Bowl 58 same-game parlay is going to focus on the underdog.

Chiefs Same-Game Parlay for Super Bowl 58

My favorite Chiefs-centric same-game parlay for Super Bowl 58 predicts a somewhat similar script, at least statistically for the KC offense, to Super Bowl 54 back in 2020. Four years ago, 286 yards and two TDs from Mahomes propelled the Chiefs to a 31-20 comeback victory. Tyreek Hill had a game-high 105 receiving yards. With the Cheetah now in Miami, expect Mahomes’ favorite target, Travis Kelce, to fill his role.

Altogether, the three legs of this Kansas City Chiefs SGP add up to +370 odds.

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Chiefs Super Bowl 58 SGP Pick #1: Mahomes Over 261.5 Passing Yards

The first leg of the parlay is Patrick Mahomes to go over 261.5 passing yards in the NFL player props for the Super Bowl. Mahomes didn’t have a banner regular season and he’s only averaging 293.3 passing yards per game in the playoffs. But his postseason bona fides are well established. In 17 career playoff games, he’s thrown for at least 262 yards 12 times and been held under that number on just five occasions.

The last time he met the 49ers in the playoffs – the 2020 Super Bowl – he racked up 286  yards on 42 attempts. While the Niners defense might be better this time around, their offense definitely is. The Niners are going to score, which is likely to have the Chiefs in either catch-up or keep-up mode, and that’s going to skew to the passing game when it comes to play-calling.

Pick: Mahomes over 261.5 passing yards (-115)

Chiefs Super Bowl 58 SGP Pick #2: Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

There is no doubt about who Mahomes’ favorite target is. The Chiefs receiving corps is one of the thinnest in the league at wide receiver, putting an even bigger emphasis on Travis Kelce at tight end. After a (relatively) quiet regular season (984 yards), the future Hall-of-Famer has had a renaissance in the playoffs. Kelce has recorded 71 receiving yards or more in all three postseason games this season, and gone over 70 yards in 12 straight playoff games dating back to the 2020-21 season.

Coincidentally, the last time he didn’t go over 70 yards in a playoff game was Super Bowl 54 against the Niners. But I say “coincidentally” and not “conceringly” because there is good reason not to be concerned. The Chiefs receiving corps looked much different back then. Tyreek Hill (105 yards on 16 targets) and Sammy Watkins (95 yards on six targets) were legitimate deep threats on the outside.

Rasheen Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Kadarius Toney are on a whole other plane of existence, and not in a good way.

Pick: Kelce over 70.5 receiving yards (-135)

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Chiefs Super Bowl 58 SGP Pick #3: Pacheco Under 67.5 Rushing Yards

This final leg of this Chiefs parlay feels the most precarious of the three. Pacheco has exceeded 67 rushing yards in all three playoff games this season, and in five of six postseason games during his brief two-year career. But going back to the regular season, he stayed under 67 yards in nine of 14 games, and the 49ers bring an elite rushing defense to the table.

San Francisco averaged just 89.7 rushing yards against during the regular season (third-fewest in the NFL). They also sat second in rushings allowed to running backs at just 65 per game and third in fantasy points allowed to running backs (13.8 per game). While the Lions were able to muster a successful ground attack in the NFC title game last week (189 rushing yards on 29 attempts), this isn’t a defense you plan to exploit by rushing the football.

Pick: Pacheco under 67.5 rushing yards (+105)

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