Tennessee vs Florida Prediction, Pick & Odds – College Football Week 3

Tennessee linebacker Aaron Beasley (6) and Tennessee defensive lineman Tyler Baron (9) celebrate on the field during a football game between Tennessee and Austin Peay at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023.The #11 Tennessee Volunteers are 5.5-point away favorites over the Florida Gators in their college football game slated for Saturday, September 16Florida is 1-4 against the spread over the school’s past five gamesHowever, the Gators are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Tennessee

It’s been almost 20 years since the #11 Tennessee Volunteers (2-0, 1-1 ATS) have done to the Florida Gators (1-1, 0-2 ATS) what oddsmakers are anticipating them doing this week. That would be to whip the Gators in successive seasons.

Last year, Tennessee downed Florida 38-33. It was the first win by the Volunteers over the Gators since 2016. However, the last time the Vols won in the Swamp was 2003.

Tennessee took the following game at home in 2004. That’s the last time the Volunteers captured successive victories over the Gators.

Oddsmakers are setting Tennessee as 5.5-point road favorites this season at Florida. The Volunteers are 0-9 straight up in their last nine road games against the Gators.

Let’s go deeper into the Tennessee vs Florida odds and offer you our prediction for this SEC Week 3 rivalry game.

Tennessee vs Florida Odds

In the Tennessee vs Florida odds, the Volunteers are -220 moneyline favorites, giving them a 68.75% implied win probability. The total is set at 56.5 points.

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Odds as of Sept. 16 at Bet365. Be sure to claim a Bet365 bonus code to bet on Volunteers vs Gators and other college football Week 3 action this week.

Florida is 16-2 SU in the last 18 games between these longtime rivals. The two schools first met on the gridiron in 1916.

Tennessee has scored more than 20 points in just two of the last nine games played at Florida. The Gators are 5-1 SU in their last six home games.

Kickoff for this game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, September 16 is set for 7:00pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ESPN.

Volunteers vs Gators Betting Splits

In the college football public betting splits, there’s big money on Florida pulling the upset. The Gators are getting 75% of ML handle with just 15% of bets. The line has shifted in favor of UF even though the Vols are 13-2 SU over their last 15 games.

Spread splits are divided on this game. Tennessee is getting 60% of handle at -5.5, but 42% of the people’s bets are backing the underdog Florida. The Volunteers are 11-4 ATS through their past 15 games.

The under is getting the majority of public betting action. It’s pulling 68% of handle and 67% of bets. This has caused it to come down a few points during the week. Four of the last six Tennessee vs Florida games hit on the under.

Tennessee is set with a betting line of +4000 in the National Championship odds.  Florida is carrying odds of +25000 in this betting market.

Tennessee Showing Balance On Offense

Whether passing or running the ball, the Tennessee offense is getting the job done. Quarterback Joe Milton has thrown for four touchdowns against no interceptions. He’s also run for three scores.

“It's the SEC, everywhere you go you're going to play real big boy football. They're not a team that we're taking lightly.” — Tennessee CB Warren Burrell on Florida pic.twitter.com/4W99DaK21E

— zach ragan (@zachTNT) September 12, 2023

Through two games, running back Jalen Wright has scampered for an average of 116.5 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee is the nation’s #25 offense, piling up 477.5 yards per game. The Vols are also the country’s #4 rushing offense, churning out 257.5 yards per game.

On defense, the Volunteers are equally stout. Allowing just 13 points per game, Tennessee is tied for the #23 scoring defense in FBS.

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Defense Name Of Game For Gators

Permitting the opposition to gain just 191 yards per game, Florida’s tenacious defense is #3 in college football. Florida is also the #7 third-down defense, allowing just a 21.7% conversion rate. But the Gators have yet to force a turnover this season.

In honor of Tennessee @ Florida this weekend…

Tennessee has only won twice in the Swamp over the past 51 seasons (since 1971).

The Vols last win in Gainesville came in 2003. pic.twitter.com/VuW83v5qLN

— Saturday Down South (@SatDownSouth) September 11, 2023

Gators QB Graham Mertz is completing 74% of his passes. He’s tallied up 526 yards and two TDs through the air. However, he may find Tennessee defenders in his backfield as often as his own players. The big-play defense of the Vols is tops in the country in sacks (11) and tackles for loss (25).

Tennessee vs Florida Prediction

The Gators have lost just twice at home to Tennessee since 1971. That was in 2001 and 2003.

The Vols need to work on their discipline. They’ve been flagged 14 times for 123 yards to rank 99th in the nation. But that’s about the only area of concern Tennessee has heading into this game.  Wright is #3 in FBS in yards per carry at 9.32.

Tennessee vs Florida Pick: Tennessee Volunteers -5.5 (-110)

 

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