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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 5
by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated Oct 7, 2023 · 3:03 PM PDT
Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates his game winning pass with teammates and head coach Sean McVay in the overtime against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY SportsGet our top against the spread picks for this weekend for October 8-9, 2023This week’s top ATS picks come all across the board and cover a variety of NFL favorites and underdogsRead on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 5 below
For Week 5 our top expert NFL picks against the spread include the two biggest favorites in the Dolphins and Lions, multiple picks on the Rams, head-to-head picks between the Ravens and Steelers and more.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins (-12) | Rams (+4) | Jaguars (+5.5) |
| Lions (-9.5) | Ravens (-4.5) | Steelers (+4.5) |
| Rams (+4) | Bengals (-3) | Patriots (+1) |
| Record: 2-9-1 | Record: 1-10-1 | Record: 7-4-1 |
In this week’s expert ATS picks the Rams make two appearances and overall we have eight different teams receiving expert ATS picks.
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Ryan Metivier
Dolphins -12
The Giants have given up 40 points, 31 points, 30 points and 24 points. Now after that 24-3 loss on Monday Night Football where Daniel Jones managed just 203 yards and got battered with 11 sacks, they’ll travel on a short week to the NFL’s most explosive offense in Miami.
The Dolphins got knocked around by the Bills last week themselves losing 48-20, but they still average 37.5 PPG, while the G-Men are scoring a league-low 11.5 PPG.
Miami may not have an elite defense, but they may not need it to pull away from the Giants as they’ve been awful and could find themselves out of this quick.
Lions -9.5
Detroit is another team that should benefit from the rest advantage having played on TNF in Week 4 giving them a few extra days to prepare for this one. They won that game convincingly over the Packers in Green Bay 34-20.
The Lions are 3-1-0 and that one loss came in overtime in a shootout with the Seahawks, a team that has the offense to go blow-for-blow with them.
The Panthers do not have that offense. They average 16.8 PPG (24th), and rank 23rd in passing and 22nd in rushing.
That will prove hard to matchup with the Lions who rank 8th in PPG, 8th in passing offense and 10th in rushing.
Panthers’ rookie QB Bryce Young has only hit 200+ passing yards once in three games, threw zero touchdowns last week and has just two on the season.
Rams +4
The Rams throw the ball at the highest rate of any team and rank second in passing yards per game. Matthew Stafford is second in passing yards with 1,229 and could continue to find success versus an Eagles team that comes in 27th in passing defense.
The Rams may welcome back Cooper Kupp who has been designated for return and has begun to practice. But even without Kupp, Puka Nacua is tearing up the league in is rookie season with 501 receiving yards to rank second behind Justin Jefferson’s 543.
This isn’t the same Eagles team that went to the Super Bowl. The Rams are 3-0-1 ATS, the best record in the NFL, and getting over a field goal makes them my pick for this week’s expert NFL picks against the spread.
The Rams offense is 4th in the NFL in yards/game (392.8), 8th in third down conversation % (43.9), and tied for 4th in rushing touchdowns (6). #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/6FhvfujsoT
— Los Angeles Rams PR (@TheLARamsPR) October 6, 2023
Bob Duff
Rams +4
Not only have the Rams yet to drop an ATS decision, they’ve kept every game within one score.
LA is #9 in the NFL in total defense, allowing 295.8 yards per game. The Rams are also 4-1 ATS over their past five home games.
Ravens -4.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers season is devolving into a South Park movie. It’s blame Canada, as in Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
Pittsburgh is #25 in the NFL in scoring offense (15.5 points per game) and #29 in total offense (263 yards per game). The Steelers have been checked on 20 points or less in 24 games since the beginning of the 2021-22 season.
Bengals -3
Remember in 1976 when the reigning two-time Super Bowl champion Steelers started 1-4, then ran the table, won the division and made the playoffs? No, you’re not that old? Well, we’re guessing neither are any of the current Bengals.
Razing Arizona is where it must start for the Bengals if there’s to be a happy ending. But they’ll need more balance and productivity from their attack. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Burrow is the first QB in NFL history to attempt at least 150 passes in his team’s first four games of a season and average fewer than five yards per attempt on those passes.
Best NFL Parlays and Teasers for Week 5Read More
Zach Reger
Jaguars +5.5
The Jaguars looked good last week in their win in London last Sunday, and they get to play there yet again. That is back-to-back weeks across the pond for Jacksonville, and I see that as a huge advantage for the Jaguars.
The Bills are also coming off their game of the year as they defeated their division rival in the Dolphins last week. This is a prime letdown spot for Buffalo, and 5.5 is just too many points for me in this week’s expert NFL picks against the spread.
Last time Jaguars LB Josh Allen played Bills QB Josh Allen:
– 8 total tackles– 1 sack– 2 TFL– 1 interception – 1 fumble recovery– Jaguars W
Can he do it again? pic.twitter.com/2Z7twD9q7p
— J5 Sports (@J5_Sports1) October 6, 2023
Steelers +4.5
Did the Steelers just get blown out by the Texans? Yes. Am I still picking them to cover this week? Yes. Pittsburgh has not looked great, but it is the Ravens and the Steelers. The underdog is almost an auto-bet for me as these games always tend to be close when it comes to ATS picks. There is also a good chance the Steelers were overlooking the Texans in anticipation of this game, and as a result, they came out flat.
Mike Tomlin as a home underdog in the regular season is 49-29-3 (62.8%) against the spread and 41-40 straight up. I am backing Tomlin to cover yet again, especially since it is more than a field goal.
Patriots +1
New England is back home after an embarrassing 38-3 loss in Dallas last week. In come the Saints, who are also coming off of a tough loss.
This game is going to be an ugly, defensive one, but I am putting my trust in Bill Belichick over Dennis Allen. I also believe the Patriots have a much better chance to bounce back at home. New England wins this game against Derek Carr who is still not 100% for my Week 5 picks against the spread.
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