Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Odds & Predictions for 2023 Egg Bowl

Nov 18, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) passes the ball during the first half against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY SportsThe 2023 Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State takes place Thursday, Nov. 23, in Starkville, MSOle Miss opened as a massive favorite, but the line has been moving toward the BulldogsSee the updated Ole Miss vs Mississippi State odds, picks, and Egg Bowl betting trends

The 120th edition of the Egg Bowl between the #12 Ole Miss Rebels (9-2, 2-2 away, 6-4-1 ATS) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6, 4-3 home, 3-8 ATS) takes place this Thursday, Nov. 23, at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS, at 6:30 pm CT/7:30 pm ET.

Ole Miss opened as a massive 13.5-point favorite last Sunday when the Egg Bowl odds were first released. But that line has moved more than a field goal in Mississippi State’s direction.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Odds

The Week 13 college football odds now list Ole Miss as a 10-point favorite as of Wednesday afternoon. The moneyline, which opened at -630/+450 in the Rebels’ favor, is a much narrower -395/+300 roughly 24 hours before kickoff.

Bettors like Ole Miss at their new price; the Rebels are getting 97% of moneyline handle and 87% of ATS handle at -10 in the college football public betting splits.

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Odds as of Nov. 23 on the bet365 app. New users can claim the bet365 bonus for November to bet on the 2023 Egg Bowl. 

Ole Miss leads the all-time series 64–46–6, but Mississippi State won last year as slight 1.5-point road underdogs in Oxford.

Mississippi State will head into the 2023 Egg Bowl with interim head coach Greg Knox at the helm. The team relieved Zach Arnett of his duties after the team’s Week 11 loss to Texas A&M. Knox earned a win in his debut, though it came against the Sun Belt’s Southern Miss Golden Eagles (41-20) and the Bulldogs remain 1-5 in SEC play. Only 0-7 Vanderbilt has a worse record.

Ole Miss Uncompetitive at Georgia

In its most-recent conference game, Ole Miss had to travel to undefeated Georgia. My expectations were high for the Rebels at 10.5-point underdogs, but they were run out of the building, literally and metaphorically.

UGA piled up 300 rushing yards during a 52-17 rout. The Ole Miss offense had a decent showing (352 total yards) but Georgia scored touchdowns on its first four drives while taking a 28-14 lead into the break.

That was just the second loss of the year for Ole Miss – and the other came against another top-five team (Alabama, 24-10). The Rebels’ two road victories this season came at #23 Tulane (37-20 as 13-point favorites) and at Auburn (28-21 as 6.5-point favorites).

In sum, they’re 0-2 ATS as road underdogs and 2-0 ATS as road favorites.

The Rebels are currently 17th in the nation in scoring (36.5 PPG) and fourth in the SEC, trailing LSU (46.8, first), Georgia (40.4, fourth), and Alabama (36.54, 16th).  But their defense is outside the top 50 in both points allowed (23.7 PPG) and yards allowed (378.2 YPG).

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Mississippi State Struggles Without Late Mike Leach

In their first full season after the tragic passing of head coach Mike Leach last December, the Bulldogs have struggled to implement a drastically different offense. With a run-based attack replacing Leach’s patented air raid, Mississippi State is averaging just 330.9 yards of offense per game. They sit 105th out of 133 FBS teams in yards per game, and second-last in the SEC (narrowly ahead of Vanderbilt’s 320.1 YPG).

Their defense has been respectable (354.5 YPG) but not nearly good enough to make up for the massive deficiencies on offense.

The Bulldogs’ only conference win this season was a 7-3 victory over fellow 1-7 Arkansas. The teams combined for just 405 total yards in the game (205 for Mississippi State and 200 for Arkansas).

Part of the issue on offense was that starting QB Will Rogers missed a significant chunk of the season with a shoulder injury suffered in early October. Backup Mike Wright went 1-3 in his stead, including the ugly 7-3 win at the Razorbacks.

That said, Rogers returned against Southern Miss last week in what should have been a layup. (The Golden Eagles are just 3-8 overall and 2-5 in the Sun Belt.) But the senior pivot was just 12-of-27 for 144 yards and two touchdowns. His 59.1 completion percentage this year is nearly nine points lower than in any of his first three seasons.

He’s shown flashes of his former prolific self this season, throwing for 487 yards on 30-of-48 passing against South Carolina. But he hasn’t gone over 227 yards in any of his other six games.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction

When this line was approaching two touchdowns, I had a strong lean toward Mississippi State as a big home underdog. After all, just once in the past six years has this rivalry been decided by more than 10, and that was a Mississippi State victory back in 2018.

With the spread coming all the way down to 10, the Bulldogs are a harder sell. There is a vast gap in talent between the two teams, and Will Rogers didn’t look good returning from injury last week.

Luckily for Rogers and company, moving the ball against Ole Miss is not a difficult task, and he performed decently against them last season (27-of-39 for 239 yards, two TD, one INT) during the Bulldogs’ 24-22 road victory. The Mississippi State defense will show up for the Egg Bowl, as it usually does, and help keep one of the most heated rivalries in the country close.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State pick: Mississippi State +10 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023 NCAAF betting record:

ATS: 3-8 (-5.27 units)ML: 6-2 (+5.46 units)O/U: 3-1 (+1.73 units)Player props: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Total: 12-12 (+0.92 units)

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