Three NFL Week 4 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 4 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 4 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

September 28, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

Detroit plays a rare favorite role against Seattle in Week 4 (Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when you bet on them and they win.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 4 underdogs to win outright, and we track our overall season performance based on the moneyline odds for each pick.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 2-1 for +2.6 units2022 Season: 6-3 for +8.3 units

We hit two of three upset picks last week, splitting on a few close finishes:

Carolina led wire-to-wire and beat New Orleans 22-14 with the help of a defensive score.Indianapolis scored a go-ahead touchdown in the closing seconds to beat Kansas City.Houston threw a late interception that led to a winning Chicago field goal as time expired.

A full history of upset picks we’ve made so far in 2022 appears at the end of this article.

Week 4 NFL Upset Picks

Seattle Seahawks (at Detroit Lions)

Moneyline: +180Point Spread: +4.0

This is the top playable moneyline pick according to our models, and the line has already dropped another half-point since we made it a staff pick on Tuesday.

Seattle is also an intriguing upset play based on the injury news coming out for Detroit. In fact, it may be easier to list which members of Detroit’s offense are actually practicing than who isn’t.

RB D’Andre Swift is likely out for this week, and he’s been one of the NFL’s most explosive players (8.6 yards per carry) so far.WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, the team’s other key playmaker, is battling an injured ankle that could limit him or keep him out.Injuries to the other starting wide receivers and starting tight end T.J. Hockenson have them all on the injury report.Two linemen (Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson) also missed practice on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Detroit ranks 27th in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry allowed. That kind of defense could play to the relative strengths of a team like Seattle, which wants to run the ball and not rely on passing constantly.

New York Jets (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Moneyline: +150Point Spread: +3

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models. The Jets also announced that QB Zach Wilson is expected to start this week after he missed the first three games following a preseason knee injury.

Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t quite as dominant as it could be with star DE T.J. Watt out, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is in the concussion protocol. Meanwhile, the offense still features Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Even though he was better in the first half against Cleveland, Trubisky is still averaging only 5.5 yards per pass attempt and has had difficulty sustaining drives.

The Jets have had issues giving up big passing plays, but Pittsburgh has not looked like the type of team that can exploit that weakness as much as Lamar Jackson (Ravens) and Joe Burrow (Bengals) did. Meanwhile, the Jets have some young playmakers on offense for Wilson to work with, with rookie WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall joining WR Elijah Moore.

Washington Commanders (at Dallas)

Moneyline: +155Point Spread: +3.5

This is again a playable moneyline pick based on our models.

Public sentiment is going in opposite directions as these two NFC East rivals meet in Dallas. The Cowboys were in panic mode after QB Dak Prescott went down, but they have won two straight close games since. The public is now all aboard America’s Team. According to our data, Dallas is the most popular pick in spread-based NFL pick’em pools this week.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Commanders were ecstatic after a season-opening win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have since fallen to 1-2 after digging themselves into big holes against both Detroit and Philadelphia.

Here’s an interesting trend: Since the start of the 2010 season, teams playing with one less day of rest (from playing on Monday night, like Dallas did last week) are 69-82-4 against the spread as betting favorites (45.8% ATS) in the next game.

We will play against the Cowboys as a favorite in a divisional matchup that has shown little home-field advantage. Dallas is only 9-15 ATS as a home favorite against Washington going back to the 1985 season.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

Week	Pick	Opponent	Wed ML	Closing ML	Result
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	+105	-130	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	+210	+200	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	+232	+266	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	+125	+124	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	+215	+220	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	+400	+372	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	+125	+145	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	+135	+115	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	+228	+190	W, 20-17

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 4 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for NFL Week 4 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a more curated list of betting picks that caught our attention, with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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