Three NFL Week 5 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 5 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 5 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

October 4, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Trevor Lawrence and the Jags look to win two in London (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)

Hitting an NFL Week 5 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

Thus begins our quest to identify which underdogs will have what it takes in NFL Week 5. In this article, we make our three favorite Week 5 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for some important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 1-2 for -0.8 units2023 Season: 2-10 for -7.6 units

It was a week of extremes as the Titans came through in resounding form against the Bengals, but our other two upset picks flopped hard.

We even managed to put the kibosh on the Dolphins and their historic start. (FYI, all 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Tennessee (+115) dominated a struggling Bengals offense, 27-3, nearly doubling up Cincinnati in yards.Miami (+133) picked this game to be loose with the ball, commit eight penalties, and miss on all three fourth down attempts, losing at Buffalo 48-20.New England (+240) turned the ball over and Dallas continued to score with the defense, crushing the Patriots 38-3.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 5, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 5 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Buffalo Bills)

Moneyline: +215Point Spread: +5.5

This is currently our top playable moneyline underdog pick and a borderline playable point spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The “London” Jaguars get to stay in England for two straight weeks and welcome the Buffalo Bills this week. Buffalo has been rolling over the last three weeks, though the fickle shift of the turnover gods has been a part in just how dominant they have appeared.

After four turnovers in the opening loss to the Jets, things have swung wildly the other way, with Buffalo at +9 in turnovers over the most recent three games. Some of that extreme turnover performance is what our models are picking up.

Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Moneyline: -105Point Spread: +1

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

We are awaiting official word but the assumption is that Jimmy Garoppolo will return in Week 5, after sitting out last week in concussion protocol.

This is a game where the model and stat factors point to regression for both teams, in opposite directions. The Raiders have been among the worst in the league at turnovers, ranking dead last with a -9 turnover differential through four games.

Green Bay, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in yards, plays per drive, and yards per drive; the Packers also rank 26th in both first downs gained and first downs allowed. But they rank closer to average in actual scoring, thanks to being near the top of the league in red zone touchdown rate and by converting 100% of field goals so far.

Basically, Green Bay has had a lot of really poor drives, but has tended to score a touchdown on drives where they move the ball at all. Streaks like that probably can’t last too much longer.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Moneyline: +179Point Spread: +4.5

This is right on the edge of a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Kansas City’s receivers have struggled, and the offense hasn’t necessarily been clicking except for in one half against the woeful Bears.

The Vikings, meanwhile, have underperformed thanks to fumble luck and big turnovers, but overcame even a 99-yard pick six to start the game against Carolina to get their first win last week. And the Vikings, not the Chiefs, actually lead the NFL in touchdown passes so far.

That explosive offense that could push Kansas City harder than any other opponent so far.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BAL	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 5 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 5 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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